Welcome to the first episode of Ask an Analyst, where the award-winning research team at Standard Bank Group Securities shares timely insights into the stock market and sector analysis.

In this episode, Ya’eesh Patel, Head of Consumer Research, answers a key question: after a tough year for South African retailers, what can we expect from consumers and retail performance over Black Friday and the 2025 festive season?

Ya’eesh breaks it down:

• Headwinds – subdued inflation pressuring retailer toplines, muted credit growth, waning consumer confidence, online gambling, and shifting wallet allocation.
• Tailwinds – mild rate relief, real wage growth, lower fuel prices, contained food inflation, and the impact of Two-Pot withdrawals earlier in the year.

He also explains why the ingredients for a strong festive season remain limited, how elevated base effects are likely to weigh on near-term earnings, and why discretionary retailers may face a bumpy few months ahead.

But there’s light on the horizon:

GDP growth is expected to improve into 2026, which could support a more positive earnings and ratings outlook later next year.

If you want clear, data-driven insights into South African retail and what’s driving consumer behaviour, this episode is essential viewing.